Apple’s China dilemma: market share or cachet?

HONG KONG (Reuters) – Apple Inc’s third straight disappointing quarter signals an urgent need for the global technology leader to drum up new revenue – and China may provide the answer.

Now more than ever, analysts say, Apple needs to get it right in the world’s most populous country, where it ranks only sixth in annual smartphone sales and Samsung Electronics remains the runaway leader.

Apple’s best plan of attack remains securing a deal with the country’s top mobile carrier by far, China Mobile Ltd. It also needs to push the development of more localized apps and extend installment financing to bring its pricey smartphones within the reach of an urban populace with an average annual income of just $ 3,500.

But it should resist the temptation to just put out a cheaper iPhone, some analysts say. Introducing a long-rumored lower-cost version of the gadget could backfire by diluting Apple’s premium brand – one of its most valuable assets.

“If you think of Apple, it’s like a bright star in the galaxy, shining so brightly and everyone is looking at it. But it might have dimmed a bit as other stars such as Samsung have popped up,” said TZ Wong, an analyst at research firm IDC.

“I don’t think it’s in Apple’s interest to further dim its star power by stepping into the low-end segment.”

With Apple’s product pipeline guarded with the same zeal accorded state secrets, some analysts are focusing instead on what the world’s largest technology company needs to do to finally become a major player in the world’s No. 2 economy.

While iPhone sales leapt 60 percent last quarter, investors worry that, in the longer term, the company may be pricing itself out of a golden opportunity while Samsung and local rivals from Huawei Technologies Co Ltd to ZTE blanket the market with cheaper phones that rival the iPhone in quality and usability.

A deal with China Mobile, the world’s largest mobile phone carrier with more than 700 million users, will prove instrumental but analysts say that may not happen until the issuance of 4G wireless licenses, which could take place later this year or even in 2014.

“The competitive landscape has definitely cranked up a few notches from a year ago. So there is more urgency for Apple to explore its ways to grow,” IDC’s Wong said.

CEO Tim Cook has made it no secret that China is an area of intense focus for the iPad and iPhone maker, especially given the still-low penetration across the country of smartphones and tablets. Apple has said it will continue to expand its retail network there, and in January, Cook flew to Beijing for at least the second time in a year, to meet with pivotal carrier China Mobile.

A STAR IS DIMMED

On Wednesday, Apple missed revenue forecasts for the third straight quarter after iPhone sales came in below expectations, fanning fears that its dominance of consumer electronics is slipping.

Apple’s revenue in China, including neighboring Hong Kong and Taiwan, totaled $ 7.3 billion in the December quarter, up 60 percent from a year earlier.

But there are signs that Apple’s vaunted cachet in the world’s most populous nation is waning.

Recent product launches for the mini-iPad and the iPhone 5 have drawn a relatively subdued response from Chinese consumers, in stark contrast to the fist-fights and egg-hurling at its Beijing store a year ago when sales of the iPhone 4S were delayed.

Since the iPhone 5 went on sale in mid-December, transactions have fallen by half, according to the Taobao Index, the consumer research data website of Internet giant Alibaba Group.

The iPhone is also losing out as consumers opt for bigger screens to watch Chinese soap operas while travelling on trains, or affordable smartphones in the sub-1,000 yuan ($ 160) category made by local vendors.

“When I started using a bigger screen, there was no turning back for me. Small screens don’t work anymore,” said a business executive surnamed Wen, as he swiped the screen on his Samsung Galaxy Note during lunch in Beijing.

Around half of the more than 60 million smartphones shipped in China in the third quarter last year had screens that were bigger than 4 inches, based on IDC’s latest figures. The iPhone 5 comes with a 4-inch screen, while the Galaxy Note II’s screen is 5.5 inches.

Also, local vendors such as Coolpad smartphone maker Yulong Computer Telecommunication Scientific (Shenzhen) Co Ltd, which offers cheaper alternatives, and Meizu Technology Co Ltd, known for its minimalist designs, have seen its legion of fans grow.

Price is a key factor, especially in the Chinese market where around 80 percent of the more than one billion mobile phone users are still on 2G networks.

On the online Taobao website, Coolpads and low-end models made by Huawei Technologies Co Ltd and ZTE Corp are selling at below 1,000 yuan, a sweet spot for many consumers switching from basic phones to smartphones.

Apple has moved to address that, partnering with China Merchants Bank to offer financing and installment options so that buyers can pay with the bank’s credit card when they shop online, media reports said.

Finally, expanding the number of applications customized for China will help grow Apple’s market share but that might need tighter collaboration with Chinese companies, such as Baidu Inc and Tencent Holdings Ltd.

“Consumers will definitely welcome closer cooperation between Apple and Chinese tech firms to customize the iPhone for the use of apps such as Tencent’s WeChat,” said Frederick Wong, executive director of Avant Capital Management (Hong Kong) Ltd, a fund that invests in Apple-related options.

(Editing by Edwin Chan and Richard Chang)

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Dr. Phil to interview alleged girlfriend hoaxer

NEW YORK (AP) — Dr. Phil McGraw has booked the first on-camera interview with the man who allegedly concocted the girlfriend hoax that ensnared Notre Dame football star Manti Te'o.

A "Dr. Phil Show" spokesperson confirmed on Friday the interview with Ronaiah Tuiasosopo (roh-NY-ah too-ee-AH'-so-SO'-poh), the man accused of creating an online persona of a nonexistent woman who Te'o said he fell for without ever meeting face-to-face.

The ruse was uncovered last week by Deadspin.com, which reported that Tuiasosopo created the woman, named Lennay Kekua, who then supposedly died last September.

No further details of the "Dr. Phil" interview, including its airdate, were announced.

This interview follows the first on-camera interview with Te'o conducted this week by Katie Couric.

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99 Cents Only Stores' family management team departs

99 Cents Only Stores Inc. said its family management team has left the deep discounter, one year after the family-run business was acquired.

Los Angeles private equity firm Ares Management and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board bought the retailer in a deal that closed in January 2012 and took the firm private. When the chain announced the deal, valued at about $1.6 billion, it said the family management team would remain in place.

But the City of Commerce company said this week that Chief Executive Eric Schiffer, Chief Administrative Officer Jeff Gold and Executive Vice President of Special Projects Howard Gold "are no longer employed by the company."

Reached on his cellphone, Jeff Gold said he could not comment on his departure or the changes at the company.

Richard Anicetti, who has served on the board of directors for eight months, has been named interim CEO. Michael Fung, former chief financial officer for Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s U.S. operations, is joining the company as interim chief administrative officer.

Anicetti also previously served as president and CEO of Food Lion grocery stores.

"The board of directors thanks Eric, Jeff, Howard and the rest of the Gold/Schiffer family for their contribution and is looking forward to working with Rick, Mike and our dedicated '99ers' to continue our growth trajectory while providing our customers with excellent value as well as a fun and exciting shopping experience," David Kaplan, chairman of the 99 Cents Only board and senior partner at Ares Management, said in a statement.

The company, founded in 1982, has benefited from bargain-hungry shoppers during the tough economy. The management changes were made to "execute on the company's previously announced accelerated growth strategy," the discounter said.

99 Cents Only Stores operates 311 stores in California, Texas, Arizona and Nevada. That's 22 more than when the acquisition deal was announced. For the quarter that ended Dec. 29, the discounter said net sales rose to $439.5 million, up 8.8% from the same period a year earlier. Same-store sales, a common industry measurement of sales at stores open at least a year, rose 4.3% when "calculated on a comparable 13-week period," the company said.

andrew.khouri@latimes.com

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Annual Tet parade will take place in Little Saigon after all

The nation's only Tet parade, staged in the heart of Little Saigon, will go on after all.

After being told that the city of Westminster could not help pay for the annual Lunar Day parade in the nation's largest Vietnamese community, organizers hurriedly raised $60,000 in just two weeks.

"We knew we could not lose this opportunity to promote the beauty of our culture," said Ha Son Tran, vice president of the Vietnamese American Federation of Southern California. "Everyone put in a lot of energy, and there's a lot of pride. Finally, we can show others that we were able to meet the challenge" of fundraising.

Nghia X. Nguyen, president of the federation, appeared at the City Council meeting Wednesday night, presenting two cashier's checks, one for $35,000 and the other for $25,000.

An official from the city's community services and recreation department will oversee the funds, said Councilman Sergio Contreras, who grew up in Westminster and started marching in the parade when he was a high school student.

"I think it's amazing," he said. "Two weeks. I haven't been in a situation where we challenged a group to come up with the money in that short amount of time, and they made it happen. Now the event that we're waiting for will happen."

The parade, scheduled for Feb. 10, is expected to draw thousands and be televised on Vietnamese cable channels here and aboard,

Peter Trinh, a father of two from Huntington Beach, said he plans to attend.

"I heard so much about it and I want my kids to be exposed to our community," he said. "I think it's a good chance for them to see our culture up close, and of course, we'll bring the friends we always go out with. Can't wait."

anh.do@latimes.com

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Samsung puts lid on capex for first time since financial crisis

SEOUL (Reuters) – Samsung Electronics Co turned cautious on spending for the first time since the global financial crisis, keeping its annual investment plan unchanged at 2012 levels, as demand for computer chips wanes and the smartphone market slows.

Samsung, one of the industry’s most aggressive spenders, has ramped up capital expenditure every year since 2004 except 2009 to meet soaring demand for its array of consumer electronics and mobile devices. It sold a record 700,000 smartphones a day in the last quarter.

But with the personal computer market shrinking for the first time in 11 years, the global smartphone market growing more slowly, and Apple Inc moving to buy fewer of Samsung‘s microprocessors used in the iPhone and iPad, the South Korean IT giant is now forced to keep a lid on spending.

“Overall its earnings momentum remains intact, and smartphone shipments will continue to grow even in the traditionally weak first quarter, as Samsung’s got a broader product line-up and Apple appears to be struggling in pushing iPhone volumes aggressively,” said Lee Se-chul, a Seoul-based analyst at Meritz Securities.

Samsung, which reported a record quarterly and annual profit on Friday, said it would keep 2013 capital expenditure unchanged from 2012.

“The key word for us in investment in 2013 is flexibility. We’ll decide as the market demand dictates,” Robert Yi, head of Samsung’s investor relations, told analysts.

Data from the company shows Samsung started to slow down planned investment in the last quarter.

Samsung said it spent 4.4 trillion won in October-December, pushing its 2012 investment to a record 23 trillion won ($ 21.5 billion). But the company said in October that it was on course to spend 25 trillion won in 2012.

Analysts had expected a 4-20 percent cut in Samsung’s 2013 capital spending.

By contrast, Taiwanese rival TSMC is planning to raise its capital expenditure to $ 9 billion this year, aimed in part at winning Apple orders away from Samsung.

Shares in Samsung fell 2.1 percent as of 0250 GMT, lagging a 1.1 percent decline in the wider market.

RECORD EARNINGS

Samsung had poured money into factories to boost production of chips and panels used in Apple products and its Galaxy range devices, pushing its operating profit to 8.84 trillion won in the last quarter. The 89 percent increase from a year earlier was in line with its earlier estimate.

Profit at its mobile devices division, which makes phones, tablets and cameras, more than doubled to 5.44 trillion won in the quarter from a year earlier, lifted by a broader offering of smartphones – from the very cheap to the very expensive.

The division accounted for 62 percent of Samsung’s overall fourth-quarter profit, up from 55 percent a year earlier.

Samsung is also seeing strong sales of its Note phablet, which analysts expect to help Samsung get through any seasonal weakness better than rivals.

Samsung, which doesn’t provide a breakdown of smartphone sales, is estimated to have sold around 63 million smartphones in the last quarter, including 15 million Galaxy S IIIs and 7 million Note IIs.

The company also said 2012 operating profit rose 86 percent to an all-time high of 29 trillion won.

SAMSUNG VS APPLE

Samsung sold 213 million smartphones last year and enlarged its share of the global market to 30.4 percent from around 20 percent in 2011, a report by market research firm Strategy Analytics showed on Friday. The sharp increase reflects Samsung’s aggressive marketing of its wide product range.

Apple’s share of the market shrank slightly to 19.4 percent from 19.0 percent in 2011, according to the report.

Globally, sales of smartphones surged 42.7 percent last year to 700 million, Strategy Analytics said.

Samsung said on Friday it expects the global smartphone segment to shrink in January-March from the seasonally strong fourth quarter, and that growth of the overall handset market will slow to the mid single-digits this year.

The forecast is in line with industry estimates, with signs of a slowdown having already emerged.

Apple shipped 47.8 million iPhones in the three months ended December, a record that nonetheless disappointed many analysts accustomed to years of outperformance. The Cupertino, California-based company also missed Wall Street’s revenue forecast for a third straight quarter as iPhone sales lagged expectations.

Apple shares have dropped by more than a third since mid-September as investors fret that its days of hyper growth are over and its devices are no longer as ‘must-have’ as they were.

By contrast, shares in Samsung have risen 12 percent in the same period as the company once seen as quick to copy the ideas of others now sets the pace in innovation.

At the world’s biggest electronics show in Las Vegas this month, Samsung unveiled a prototype phone with a flexible display that can be folded almost like paper, and a microchip with eight processing cores, creating a buzz that these may be used in the next Galaxy range.

“It’s very probable to us that the Exynos 5 Octa (processor) will find its way into the Galaxy S4,” UBS analyst Nicolas Gaudois wrote in a recent note.

“It also looked as if the curved display is close enough to finished product. We came away even more convinced that displays will provide significant differentiation to Samsung devices, and application processors will materially grow over time,” Gaudois said. ($ 1 = 1066.2000 Korean won)

(Reporting by Miyoung Kim; Editing by Ryan Woo)

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Voice of Te'o prankster? Couric plays voicemails

NEW YORK (AP) — The person Manti Te'o says was pretending to be his online girlfriend told the Notre Dame linebacker "I love you" in voicemails that were played during his interview with Katie Couric.

Taped earlier this week and broadcast Thursday, the hour-long talk show featured three voicemails that Te'o claims were left for him last year. Te'o said they were from the person he believed to be Lennay Kekua, a woman he had fallen for online but never met face-to-face.

After the first message was played, Te'o said: "It sounds like a girl, doesn't it?"

"It does," Couric responded.

The interview was the All-American's first on camera since his tale of inspired play after the deaths of his grandmother and girlfriend on the same day in September unraveled as a bizarre hoax in an expose by Deadspin.com on Jan. 16.

Te'o's parents appeared with him for part of the interview and backed up his claim that he wasn't involved in the fabrication, saying they, too, had spoken on the phone with a person they believed to be Kekua.

Couric addressed speculation that the tale was concocted by Te'o as a way to cover up his sexual orientation. Asked if he were gay, Te'o said "no" with a laugh. "Far from it. Faaaar from that."

He also said he was "scared" and "didn't know what to do" after receiving a call on Dec. 6 — two days before the Heisman Trophy presentation — from a person who claimed to be his "dead" girlfriend.

The first voicemail, he said, was from what was supposed to be Kekua's first day of chemotherapy for leukemia.

"Hi, I am just letting you know I got here and I'm getting ready for my first session and, um, just want to call you to keep you posted. I miss you. I love you. Bye," the person said.

In the second voicemail, the person was apparently upset by someone else answering Te'o's phone.

The third voicemail was left on Sept. 11, according to Te'o, the day he believed Kekua was released from the hospital and the day before she "died."

"Hey babe, I'm just calling to say goodnight," the person on the voicemail said. "I love you. I know that you're probably doing homework or you're with the boys. ... But I just wanted to say I love you and goodnight and I'll be ok tonight. I'll do my best. Um, yeah, so get your rest and I'll talk to you tomorrow. I love you so much, hon. Sweet dreams."

Couric suggested the person who left those messages might have been Ronaiah Tuisasosopo, a 22-year-old man from California, who Te'o said has apologized to him for pulling the hoax.

"Do you think that could have been a man on the other end of the phone?" she asked.

"Well, it didn't sound like a man," Te'o said. "It sounded like a woman. If he somehow made that voice, that's incredible. That's an incredible talent to do that. Especially every single day."

Tuiasosopo has not spoken publicly since news of the hoax broke. The Associated Press has learned that a home in California where Te'o sent flowers to the Kekua family was once a residence of Tuiasosopo and has been in his family for decades.

Also on Thursday, the woman whose pictures were used in fake online accounts for Kekua said Tuiasosopo confessed to her in a 45-minute phone conversation as the scheme unraveled.

Diane O'Meara spoke with The Associated Press in a telephone interview. She said Tuiasosopo told her he'd been "stalking" her Facebook profile for five years and stealing photos.

O'Meara's attorney, Jim Artiano, said they had not decided on whether to take any legal action.

The 23-year-old O'Meara, of Long Beach, Calif., said she knew Tuiasosopo from high school and he contacted her through Facebook on Dec. 16. She said that, over the next three weeks, Tuiasosopo got in touch with her several times, attempting to get photos and video of O'Meara. She said he made up a story about wanting them to help cheer up a cousin who was injured in a car crash.

O'Meara learned her identity had been stolen on Jan. 13 when she was contacted by Deadspin.com.

The next day she got in touch with Tuiasosopo.

"When I contacted Ronaiah I got a very bizarre vibe from him, he became very nervous, he wasn't asking the questions I expected. He was asking 'Who contacted you? What did they say?'" O'Meara said.

Later that day, he confessed, O'Meara said. She said she asked Tuiasosopo why he didn't simply stop the hoax.

"He told me he wanted to end the relationship," O'Meara said. "He said he wanted to stop the relationship between Lennay and Manti, but Manti didn't want Lennay to break up with him ... He said he tried to stop the game many times."

When news of the hoax broke a few days later, O'Meara said she received a text from Tuiasosopo asking her to call him as soon as possible. O'Meara said she didn't respond.

___

Associated Press writer Tami Abdollah contributed to this report from Los Angeles.

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HCA Must Pay Kansas City Foundation $162 Million

HCA, the nation’s largest profit-making hospital chain, was ordered on Thursday to pay $162 million after a judge in Missouri ruled that it had failed to abide by an agreement to make improvements to dilapidated hospitals that it bought in the Kansas City area several years ago.

The judge also ordered a court-appointed accountant to determine whether HCA had actually provided the levels of charitable care that it agreed to at the time.

The ruling came in response to a suit filed in 2009 by a community foundation that was created when HCA acquired the hospitals. Among other things, the foundation was responsible for ensuring that HCA met the obligations outlined in the deal.

The dispute in Kansas City is the second time in recent years that HCA has come under legal fire from officials in communities that sold troubled nonprofit community hospitals to HCA.

In another dispute in New Hampshire in 2011, a judge ruled in HCA’s favor, deciding that Portsmouth Regional Hospital would remain part of HCA after community leaders tried to regain control. During testimony in a 2011 trial, a former hospital official claimed he had difficulties getting HCA to pay for what he and others described as critical equipment and facility upgrades.

In an e-mailed statement, a spokesman for HCA said the company was disappointed in the court’s ruling and intended to appeal. He also added that the two cases were “rare exceptions” and that the company had enjoyed positive relationships with communities across the country.

The suit is among several problems for HCA. The company disclosed last year, for example, that the United States attorney’s office in Miami had subpoenaed documents as part of an inquiry to determine whether unnecessary cardiology procedures had been performed at HCA hospitals in Florida and elsewhere. At stake in that case is whether HCA inappropriately billed Medicare and private insurers for the procedures. HCA has denied any wrongdoing.

Financially, Thursday’s judgment is a slap on the wrist for HCA, which posted net income of $360 million in just the third quarter of last year. But the ruling may reverberate beyond HCA as communities across the country put their troubled nonprofit hospitals up for sale.

In many cases, the buyers with the deepest pockets have been profit-making hospital chains that want to convert the community hospitals to profit status, typically agreeing to spend money to fix them and to maintain certain levels of charitable care in the community.

In 2011, for instance, Vanguard Health Systems, which went public that year and has as its largest shareholder the private equity firm Blackstone Group, bought eight hospitals in Detroit. As part of that deal, Vanguard Health agreed to spend $850 million over five years to fix and maintain the hospitals.

The trouble in the Kansas City area began a year after HCA acquired a dozen hospitals from Health Midwest in 2003 for $1.125 billion. As part of the deal, HCA agreed to make $300 million in capital improvements in the first two years and an additional $150 million in the following three. The hospital chain also agreed to maintain the levels of care that had been provided to low-income individuals and families in the area for 10 years.

But when the members of the Health Care Foundation of Greater Kansas City, a nonprofit created from the proceeds of the sale of the hospital, received their first report from HCA in 2004 they discovered the hospital was already way behind.

Of the $300 million it was supposed to spend in the first two years, its own documents showed it had spent only about $50 million, according to Mark G. Flaherty, one of the founding members of the foundation and its general counsel.

HCA’s reports to the foundation also indicated that the level of charitable care it provided at the system’s large inner-city hospital had fallen while charitable care provided at the more affluent suburban hospital had risen sharply, Mr. Flaherty said.

“That was a big red flag to us,” he said.

After repeatedly asking HCA executives for explanations but receiving none, the foundation sued HCA in 2009. The case went to trial for several weeks in 2011.

HCA argued in the trial that it had met its obligation to spend money on hospital facilities by building two new hospitals at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars, rather than repairing older facilities. But Judge John Torrence of Jackson County Circuit Court ruled that the agreement called for improvements to existing hospitals.

He said HCA still owed $162 million of the $300 million it had agreed to spend between 2003 and 2005. He then named a court-appointed forensic accountant to determine whether HCA had met its other capital commitments and whether it provided the charitable care it had said it would.

HCA’s own written statements claimed “differing amounts,” the judge wrote in his ruling. One HCA report said it provided $48 million in charitable care to the area in 2009 while another report on its Web site said it provided more than $87 million. The annual report to the foundation claimed it provided $185 million in uncompensated and charity care that year, the judge wrote.

During the trial, when asked about the widely differing numbers, the president of HCA’s Midwest division and other HCA executives had no explanation.

The money will be paid to the foundation, which will use it to create grants to provide care for uninsured or underinsured families in the area. It is unclear whether the spending on improvements will occur.

Depending on what the court-appointed accountant discovers, HCA may owe even more money, said Paul Seyferth of Seyferth Blumenthal & Harris, which represents the foundation.

“We think they’re going to have a tremendously difficult time convincing anybody that they spent what they claim they spent,” Mr. Seyferth said.

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Lawmaker questions Disney's plan for wristband data

A congressman from Massachusetts raised questions Thursday about how Walt Disney Co. will use information it collects when it gives parkgoers new wristbands embedded with computer chips.

Edward J. Markey (D-Mass), who co-chairs a congressional panel on privacy, asked Walt Disney Co. Chairman and Chief Executive Robert A. Iger in a letter what information the park will collect with the so-called MagicBand and how it will be used.

"Widespread use of MagicBand bracelets by park guests could dramatically increase the personal data Disney can collect about its guests," he said, adding that he is particularly concerned at the prospects of Disney collecting information about children.

Disney announced recently that it plans to unveil this spring at Walt Disney World in Florida a wristband embedded with radio frequency identification chips. A unique code in each chip lets parkgoers pay to enter the park, check into Disney hotels and buy food and souvenirs, among other things.

Disney officials promoted the wristbands as a way to make visiting the park easier. The wristbands will let Disney use the data to customize future offerings and marketing pitches.

Disney officials say they have no plans yet to introduce the wristbands at Disneyland or Disney California Adventure Park in Anaheim.

In a three-page letter, Markey said he is "deeply concerned that Disney's proposal could potentially have a harmful impact on our children." He asked whether parkgoers will have a chance to opt out of sharing their information and, if not, whether Disney will share the data with other companies.

A spokesman for Markey said his office had not received a response from Disney on Thursday, but in a statement to The Times, the company said participation in the wristband program was optional.

"In addition, guests control whether their personal information is used for promotional purposes, and no data collected is ever used to market to children," the statement said.

If parkgoers agree to release such information it can be used for marketing, Disney officials confirmed.

hugo.martin@latimes.com

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Quitting smoking prolongs life at any age

It's never too late to quit smoking, and researchers have new data to prove it. Even at the age of 64, kicking the habit can add four years to a person's life, while quitting by age 34 can increase life expectancy by a decade, according to a study published online Wednesday by the New England Journal of Medicine.

After analyzing health data from more than 200,000 Americans, researchers calculated that current smokers were three times more likely to die during the course of the study compared with people who had never smoked. For the most part, their deaths were caused by smoking-related ailments, including heart and lung disease. Overall, their odds of surviving to age 80 were half as good as for never-smokers.

But the study, one of two large-scale surveys in the journal providing updated information on smoking and mortality, saw significant benefits for those who quit. Giving up smoking between the ages of 35 and 44 was associated with a gain of nine years of life, and those who quit between 45 and 54 lived an extra six years.

"The good news is, because the risks are so big, the benefits of quitting are quite substantial," said study leader Prabhat Jha, an epidemiologist and director of the Center for Global Health Research, based in Toronto.

While the U.S. smoking rate has declined to 19.3% among adults, there are still an estimated 45.3 million smokers in this country, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Cigarette use is responsible for about 443,000 U.S. deaths each year, the CDC says.

Using the National Health Interview Survey, the researchers followed 113,752 women and 88,496 men in the U.S. between 1997 and 2004, categorizing them as smokers (at least 100 cigarettes within their lifetime), former smokers (no smoking within the last five years) and never-smokers. Former smokers were held to the five-year rule in order to weed out those who were already in declining health because of potentially fatal smoking-related diseases.

The researchers checked death records in 2006 and found that 8,236 of the women and 7,479 of the men had died. By comparing mortality rates among the groups, Jha's team calculated that women between the ages of 25 and 79 who were current smokers were three times more likely to die than women who never smoked. Among men in that age group, those who still smoked were 2.8 times more likely to die than never-smokers. The results were adjusted for age, education, body mass index and alcohol consumption, since smokers tended to be thinner, have less education and be more likely to drink.

The vast difference in mortality rates is partly due to the increasing health standards of the nonsmoking population, Jha said.

The second study examined mortality rates over half a century in 2.2 million people 55 and older — possibly the largest such survey undertaken, said lead author Michael Thun, recently retired from his work as a cancer epidemiologist with the American Cancer Society.

Thun's survey measured trends in death rates across three time periods: 1959 to 1965, 1982 to 1988 and 2000 to 2010.

The analysis revealed a worrying trend that also cropped up in Jha's study: Women's death rates from smoking, which had long lagged behind men's, had pulled even.

Consider lung cancer. In the early 1960s, women smokers were 2.73 times more likely to die from lung cancer than their nonsmoking counterparts; by 2010, they were 25.66 times more likely to die of the disease, Thun found. (Male smokers' relative risk of dying of lung cancer rose from 12.22 to 24.97 over the same period.)

"It's staggering," Thun said.

It's an unsurprising glass ceiling to break, doctors said. Women began smoking routinely after World War II, about two decades after men took up the habit, so it was only a matter of time until their mortality rates caught up.

The two papers did not draw distinctions between people who smoked a pack a day and those who might smoke just a few cigarettes a day, said Dr. Steven Schroeder, director of the Smoking Cessation Leadership Center at UC San Francisco. A next step in terms of study would be "to find out how much less health problems there are for smokers who smoke fewer cigarettes," he said.

Taken together, the studies point to a need for far more effective efforts to reach potential and current smokers, Schroeder added.

The message needs to get out to young and old smokers alike, he said: "There's a ray of hope. It's never too late to quit."

amina.khan@latimes.com

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Apple’s iPhone disappointment fans doubt on growth

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – Apple Inc missed Wall Street’s revenue forecast for the third straight quarter after iPhone sales came in below expectations, fanning fears that its dominance of the mobile industry was slipping.

Shares of the world’s largest tech company fell 10 percent to $ 463 in after-hours trade, wiping out some $ 50 billion of its market value – nearly equivalent to that of Hewlett-Packard and Dell, combined.

On Wednesday, Apple said it shipped a record 47.8 million iPhones in the December quarter, up 29 percent from the year-ago period. But that lagged the 50 million that analysts on average had projected.

Expectations heading into the results had been subdued by news of possible production cutbacks by some component suppliers in Asia, triggering fears that demand for the iPhone, which accounts for half of Apple‘s revenue, and the iPad could be slowing.

But many investors clung to hopes for a repeat of years of historical outperformance, analysts said.

“It’s going to call into question Apple‘s dominance in the space. It’s still one of the strong players, the others being Samsung and Google. It’s still a two-horse race, but Android continues to grow rapidly,” said Sterne Agee analyst Shaw Wu.

“If you step back a bit, it’s clear they shipped a lot of phones. But the problem is the high expectations that investors have. Apple‘s conservative guidance highlights the concerns over production cuts coming out of Asia recently.”

Apple projected revenue of $ 41 billion to $ 43 billion in the current, second fiscal quarter, lagging the average Wall Street forecast of more than $ 45 billion.

Fiscal first quarter revenue rose 18 percent to $ 54.5 billion, below the average analyst estimate of $ 54.73 billion, though earnings per share of $ 13.81 beat the Street forecast of $ 13.47, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Apple also undershot revenue targets in the previous two quarters, and these results will prompt more questions on what Apple has in its product pipeline, and what it can do to attract new sales and maintain its growth trajectory, analysts said.

Net income of $ 13.07 billion was virtually flat with $ 13.06 billion a year earlier on higher manufacturing costs. The year-ago quarter also had an extra week compared to this year.

Gross margins consequently slid to 38.6 percent, from 44.7 percent previously.

“You can’t just keep rolling out iPhones and iPads and think that everybody needs a new one,” said Jeffrey Gundlach, who runs DoubleLine Capital LP, the $ 53 billion bond firm. “The mini? What is that all about? It is a slightly smaller iPad — so what? So that is our new definition of innovation?”

“There are plenty of competitors like Samsung and other legitimate competitors like them,” added Gundlach, one of the highest-profile Apple bears. He maintains a $ 425 price target.

Shares of several of Apple‘s suppliers crumbled. Chip suppliers Skyworks and Cirrus Logic both fell more than 6 percent. Qualcomm Inc slipped 1.8 percent.

CHINA IS NEXT BIG GROWTH DRIVER

Apple shares are down nearly 30 percent from a record high in September, in part on worries that its days of hyper growth are over and its mobile devices are no longer as popular.

Intense competition from Samsung‘s cheaper phones – powered by Google’s Android software – and signs that the premium smartphone market may be close to saturation in developed markets have also caused a lot of investor anxiety.

Meanwhile, sales of the iPad came in at 22.9 million in the fiscal first quarter, roughly in line with forecasts.

On the brighter side, Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer told Reuters that iPhone sales more than doubled in greater China – a region that Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook has vowed to focus on as its next big growth driver.

The company will begin detailing results from that country going forward. Revenue from the region totaled $ 7.3 billion, up 60 percent from the year-ago December quarter.

“These results were OK, but they definitely raised a few questions,” said Shannon Cross, analyst with Cross Research. “Gross margin trajectory looks fine so that’s a positive and cash continues to grow. But I think investors are going to want to know what Apple plans to do with growing cash balance.”

“And other questions are going to be around innovation and where the next products are coming from and what does Tim Cook see in the next 12 to 18 months.”

ADDRESSING PRODUCTION RUMORS

In an unusual move for Apple, which typically does not respond to speculation, Cook addressed the production cutback rumors at length on the conference call and questioned the accuracy of rumors about its plans.

Media reports earlier this month said the company is slashing orders for iPhone 5 and iPad screens and other components from its Asian suppliers.

“Even if a particular data point were factual, it would be impossible to accurately interpret the data point as to what it meant for our overall business, because the supply chain is very complex,” he said, adding that Apple has multiple sources for components.

“Yields might vary. Supplier performance can vary. The beginning inventory positions can vary. There’s just an inordinately long list of things that would make any single data point not a great proxy for what’s going on,” he said.

Apple‘s initial iPhone and iPad mini sales were hurt by supply constraints, but Cook expects supply to balance demand for the iPad mini this quarter. He also acknowledged that iPad was cannibalizing its high-margin Macintosh computers, but said it was a huge opportunity for the company.

“On iPad in particular, we have the mother of all opportunities here, because the Windows market is much, much larger than the Mac market is,” he said. And I think it is clear that it’s already cannibalizing some.”

In another departure from tradition, Apple intends to tweak the way it both reports results and publishes forecasts.

Apart from breaking out results from China, the company also will no longer provide a single revenue or gross margin outlook. From Wednesday, it began providing the range it expects to hit, rather than the often-ludicrously conservative estimates that Apple was once notorious for.

The new policy took many by surprise.

“Before people could always ignore the guidance,” said Dan Niles, Chief Investment Officer of AlphaOne Capital Partners, LLC. “Apple is telling investors that they need to pay attention to the guidance and you can’t ignore it, which is basically what we all did in the past.”

(Additional reporting by Alistair Barr and Alexei Oreskovic in San Francisco and Jennifer Ablan in New York; Editing by Bernard Orr and Edwin Chan)

Tech News Headlines – Yahoo! News

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